Middle Powers and the Evolving International Order

Professor Meghan O'Sullivan moderating a discussion on the evolving role of middle powers in today's geopolitical landscape at the Project on Middle Powers event, Harvard Kennedy School, September 30, 2024.

On September 30, 2024, the Project on Middle Powers at Harvard Kennedy School, moderated by Professor Meghan O'Sullivan, hosted a fascinating discussion on the evolving global landscape. Panelists included notable experts such as Senem Aydin Duzgit, Bernard Haykel, and Moeed W. Yusuf, each offering unique perspectives on how middle powers are navigating the shifting dynamics of international relations, particularly amidst intensifying U.S.-China competition.
The Shifting Global Landscape
O'Sullivan opened the session by framing the discussion around the transition from a unipolar to a multipolar world. The rise of China and the evolving role of the U.S. have altered the traditional geopolitical order, forcing middle powers to adopt strategic autonomy. These nations, while not aligning exclusively with the U.S. or China, are increasingly seeking to carve out independent paths that balance relationships with both superpowers. The concept of the “Thucydides Trap” – the fear that competition between rising and established powers inevitably leads to conflict – looms large in these discussions, as middle powers look to assert influence in the global order.
Strategic Autonomy and Multi-Alignment
Moeed Yusuf emphasized the importance of middle powers leveraging their collective strength. He described how certain countries, despite being pressured by both the U.S. and China, seek a multi-alignment strategy that enables them to benefit from both without being constrained by either. This balancing act, Yusuf argued, is crucial in today’s geopolitics, where smaller nations are increasingly playing pivotal roles in regional conflicts, energy transitions, and global governance.
Technology, Energy, and Strategic Choices
Bernard Haykel brought a compelling focus on technology, particularly artificial intelligence (AI), and its implications for middle powers like Saudi Arabia. He highlighted how nations with deep economic ties to China and security alliances with the U.S. face increasing challenges in maintaining this delicate balance. The development of AI, could force nations to choose between technological partnerships with the U.S. or China, impacting their future security and autonomy. Saudi Arabia, for instance, is looking to attract U.S. companies to develop AI infrastructure while maintaining oil trade relationships with China—a balancing act that might become increasingly difficult in the years ahead, he argues.
Turkey's Navigation of a Multi-Polar World
Senem Aydin-Duzgit discussed Turkey’s unique position as a member of NATO, a potential candidate for the European Union, and a close partner of Russia. Turkey’s ability to navigate multiple alliances in a multipolar world showcases how middle powers, through pragmatic and transactional relationships, can pursue strategic autonomy while aligning with different global actors. However, Aydin-Duzgit pointed out the challenges Turkey faces in balancing its deep economic dependence on Europe with its expanding ties to non-Western powers like Russia and China.
Nigeria’s Role in a Changing World
John Kayode Fayemi discussed Nigeria’s position as a rising power in Africa, with a population expected to surpass that of any country except China and India. Nigeria’s responsibility to represent the African continent on the global stage, particularly in peacekeeping and international governance, offers a unique form of middle power diplomacy. Fayemi argued that Nigeria’s pragmatic approach to U.S.-China relations allows it to engage both powers in ways that benefit its national interests while contributing to broader global stability.
Southeast Asia: Pragmatic Engagement
Joseph Liow spoke on Southeast Asia's response to U.S.-China competition, with Singapore exemplifying the pragmatic approach to navigating these global dynamics. Southeast Asian countries, according to Liow, must maintain relationships with both superpowers, using their economic ties to China while relying on the U.S. for security. The region’s strategy is one of calculated pragmatism, reflecting the broader trend among middle powers to engage both the U.S. and China without being pulled into binary choices.
Middle Powers in 2040:
A Positive Impact? The panel concluded by imagining the world in 2040 and discussing whether middle powers will have had a positive impact on resolving major global issues such as climate change, energy transitions, and international security. While middle powers do not form a unified bloc, their collective actions on key global challenges—ranging from the Saudi-Iran rapprochement to climate action—suggest that they will continue to shape the international order in significant ways.
Strategic Autonomy and the Future
The panel explored the future of strategic autonomy for middle powers. As countries like Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Nigeria strive to maintain independence in a world dominated by great power rivalry, the question remains: Can they continue to navigate these relationships without being forced to choose sides? As the global order shifts, middle powers will play a crucial role in shaping the new international landscape, one defined not just by competition but by collaboration and shared responsibility.

References
O'Sullivan, Meghan. (Moderator). (2024, September 30). The Shifting Global Landscape: Middle Powers in a Multipolar World. Project on Middle Powers at Harvard Kennedy School. Panel discussion with Senem Aydin Duzgit, Bernard Haykel, Moeed W. Yusuf, John Kayode Fayemi, and Joseph Liow. Harvard Kennedy School, Cambridge, MA.
OpenAI, ChatGPT. (2024, September). Used for conversational assistance, providing summaries and enhancing the style of writing.